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07/28/2007: "NSCN-IM rider to ceasefire - Outfit demands Delhi’s commitment OUR CORRESPONDENT The Telegraph"




NSCN-IM rider to ceasefire - Outfit demands Delhi’s commitment OUR CORRESPONDENT The Telegraph


Muivah and Swu at Camp Hebron on Friday. Picture by Eastern Projections
Kohima, July 27: The National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah) today said the ceasefire could be extended after July 31 “only if the Centre promises an early solution to the Naga problem”.
After the outfit’s sixth consultative committee meeting at Camp Hebron near Dimapur, its deputy minister for information and publicity, Alezo Chakhesang, said different Naga organisations wanted Delhi’s guarantee for “an acceptable and honourable” solution before taking any decision on extending the ceasefire.
“The Naga NGOs are not happy with the way the Centre has handled the Naga issue over the past 10 years.”
Several Naga leaders have also reportedly expressed dissatisfaction over the Centre’s “delaying tactics”. “According to them, the ceasefire extension must be based on certain conditions,” Chakhesang said this evening.
A clear picture will emerge after meetings with the Centre, he said. Delhi’s representatives for the Naga peace talks are scheduled to hold parleys with the NSCN (I-M) leadership in Dimapur on July 30 and 31. Chakhesang, however, was optimistic about a solution after today’s “fruitful” meeting which was attended by Isak Chisi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah.
The rival Khaplang faction today rejected a ceasefire for rebel factions framed by gaonburhas (village chiefs) in its current form.
“It is a plan by the NSCN (I-M) to show to the Centre that the Nagas are united,” a statement issued by the outfit said.
It said the five-point ceasefire resolution adopted by the Joint Forum of Nagaland Gaonburhas’ Federation and Nagaland Dobhashis’ (interpreters) Association sent to its leaders, was not the original document as it was signed by a senior NSCN (I-M) functionary. The outfit said no formal invitation was received by their leaders to attend the meeting.
NSCN (IM) speaks on consultative meet The Morung Express

Dimapur, July 28 (MExN): The NSCN (IM) today asserted that it is futile for the cease-fire to continue if the government of India has to treat the Nagas in the manner it has treated in the past 10 years of ceasefire. An MIP press statement, in this regard, asked the Indian government either to pursue with more dedication. “In short the conclusive message of the Nagas to the Government of India was to treat with times specific and result oriented mission or just leave the matter to the Nagas.” The sixth consultative meeting of the NSCN (IM) with the Naga public was held at July 27, at Hebron which was attended by a cross section of people from the sates of Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
‘Nagas, stop killing each other’

DIMAPUR, JULY 28 (MExN): The Naga Solidarity Group has congratulated “all Naga national groups for coming to the table and forming the unprecedented truce pact.” A statement issued today said: “All groups have suffered losses and are to be commended for working jointly toward a future that will benefit all Nagas and strengthen their goal for attaining freedom.” As many as 31 foreign nationals from 22 countries appended their signatures in the statement that fervently pleaded the Nagas to stop killing each other “if the Indian state is to seriously consider recognizing the Naga people’s right to sovereignty.” On keeping with the groups coming together to form the historic truce, the statement focused on the need for all Naga people to be allowed to participate and air their political views in a public forums. To the different armed groups, the Naga Solidarity Group advises: “Taking the step of making this truce pact while courageous, will be challenging in terms of fully honoring the ceasefire as seen in the recent clash in Phek town. Advising the members of all the groups of the truce's rules of engagement is absolutely imperative, as well as exercising political and military constraint to reduce the possibility of any further violence from taking place.”
Assam Zeliangrong submit rep to NSCN-IM The Morung Express
Dimapur, July 28 (MExN): In the 6th consultative meeting of the NSCN-IM at Camp Hebron yesterday, July 27, delegates representing Zeliangrong Nagas of Assam submitted a representation to the organization. In it were various points of which the NSCN-IM assured to attend to.
A note issued by H Marshall Newmai general secretary of the Zeliangrong Council Assam highlighted the following points that were submitted:
• Hundred percent cooperation and support to the ongoing Indo-Naga 60th round of political talks.
• The ceasefire between the government of India and the NSCN-IM should effect in sub-monitoring cell and one be opened at Asalu block of GPRN, the first Naga Hills headquarter, to avoid human rights violation from the underground and Indian military.
• “Allocation of Tatar seat” for Naga areas in NC Hills, Assam and to upgrade the Zeliangrong region to a “brigade.”
• Zeliangrong literature of Zeme is recognized “since time immemorial by the government” but the GPRN calendar 2007 printed and published “J” in place of “Z.”
“Collective leadership warmly welcomed the Assam Zeliangrong delegates to their secretariat and assured to attend all the points of representation and assured the insecurity and (victimization) by the political party to the Zeliangrong community shall be taken into account” the note stated. The NSCN-IM had yesterday held its 6th ‘Naga people’s’ consultative meet at its HQ where civil society was also informed to have attended.
‘Naga people need to understand together’
Posted on Friday, July 27 @ 23:20:38 UTC by administrator DIMAPUR, July 27:: The NSCN-IM held its 6th ‘Naga people’s’ consultative meet at Camp Hebron today where the ‘general tone was that another round of ceasefire be had.

’ An MIP note asserted that “thousands from every nook and corner of Naga inhibited areas, including Somra of Myanmar turned up to listen and to speak on the Naga Ceasefire with India.”

“The anxiety of the Naga people in deciding the fate of the Indo-Naga Ceasefire that has touch ten years without anything worth to show of was visible demonstrated at Council Headquarters, Hebron. Significantly, anybody who matters in the social set up of Nagas turn up to make the day that carries the Naga people’s mandate” an MIP note from the NSCN-IM stated.

According to the MIP note, NSCN-IM general secretary Th. Muivah Muivah reminded that “we need to understand each other, because this is not the time to make mistake…when we understand the position of our adversaries there is nothing to fear.” He made it clear that India has ‘well-understood’ the Nagas’ historical issue while the Nagas “have also understood India’s position, but Nagas can still go on to make things very clear if India fail to follow.”

The note further stated that recollecting his talk to Padmanabhaiah, India’s interlocutor, Muivah reminded that unless India respects the history of the Nagas, there’ll be no meeting point. “And Padmanabhaiah responded that he’ll respect Naga history because he is convinced of Nagas’ right” the MIP quoted adding that this “was the way Muivah convinced him to come to Kohima for the next round of Indo-Naga talk to demonstrate his respect for Nagas’ sentiment.”

On the Ceasefire, the NSCN-IM as a “people’s mandated movement” make things very clear to India that unless the people are taken along, the MIP stated, there will be no solution. Then the Naga people will have to give voice on the fate of the ceasefire that ends on July 31, the NSCN-IM stated.
‘There is no single Naga civil society that failed to express solidarity in making such crucial decision as on ceasefires’ the NSCN-IM observed adding that the ‘general tone of the meeting was to go for another round of ceasefire’
Besides the Naga Hoho, Naga Mothers’ Association, Naga Students’ Federation, Naga Peoples’ Movement for Human Right and the UNC, all “Naga civil societies” attended, it informed.
(Morung Express News)NSCN-K clears air on ceasefire pact The Morung Express
Dimapur, July 28 (MExN): The NSCN-K today issued another statement justifying its stand on the GB/DBs’ ceasefire initiative and the subsequent declaration of ceasefire between all warring Naga underground groups. According to the NSCN-K MIP, the NSCN-IM had been searching for an entity to broker a peace between the factions. “At last” the GB federation was entrusted to do the same, later to involve the DBs as well. The GB/DBs then brought the five-point resolutions and met the NSCN-K leaders on June 26. The forum was assured acceptance of the resolutions in principle. However, on their visit to Mon to meet the NSCN-K in Mon July 11, a separate draft of paper signed by Samson Jajo was produced. The NSCN-K rejected, the MIP stated. However, “for the sake of peace” a written acceptance of the five-point resolution was issued to the GB/DBs, it added.
“From that point of time, the GPRN/NSCN leaders began doubting the integrity and sincerity of the leaders of GBs and DBs; the GBs and DBs are not NGOs; they are state government agents and servants” the MIP asserted. However “in the interest of peace” the NSCN-K made a commitment to the forum hoping that it would maintain utmost sincerity and integrity in their dealings, the organization explained.
Further the NSCN-K explained that on July 24, it could not attend the meeting convened by the joint forum “because it was only announced through newspapers.” This, the NSCN-K stated, could not be trusted “fully.” It asserted that ‘formal written invitation letters should have been issued.’ It was also queried why the Naga Hoho, NSF, NMA, NPMHR etc were not invited and also that Nagaland state government bureaucrats and ceasefire monitoring chairman were invited. It also queried how the meeting could be convened in the Deputy Commissioner’s office. In regard to the July 25 Phek shootout, the NSCN-K asserted that it was the NSCN-IM cadres who fired first at the FGN cadres, “who retaliated mildly.” The NSCN-K further asserted that “every Naga” has understood that the NSCN-IM has dropped the demand for sovereignty and rather, the matter of integration has been taken up. This way, the NSCN-IM has forgotten the “Assam Nagas,” “Arunachal Nagas” and the “Eastern Nagas” the MIP stated. “Naga people should not be so weak to be fooled through the useless gimmicks of IK” it added.
Joint forum clarifies The joint forum of the GBs and DBs has expressed shock and dismay at the NSCN-K doubting the sincerity and integrity of the former. The forum of the Nagaland GBs’ Federation and the Nagaland DBs’ Association has, nonetheless, appealed to the factions to respect and maintain the written commitment to the five-point agreement.
The doubt expressed by the NSCN-K and the allegation that the joint forum’s initiative was a manipulation of the NSCN-IM is a surprise and dismay, a note from the GBs/DBs lamented. Clarification on several points raised was clarified.
The forum stated that the meeting place at Dimapur was decided by the forum basing on the accessibility and communication available and simultaneous with the inauguration of the forum’s central office at Dimapur. Nonetheless, the forum assured that the next joint meeting can be held anywhere in Nagaland as suggested, other than Dimapur. On the complaint raised over invitation, the forum clarified that no official invitation letter to any underground group was dispatched except through the local media.
The draft on the enforcement of inter-group ceasefire was drafted in the executive meeting July4 and the 5th and no third party was involved in the drafting, the forum stated. It was made neutral “that is how all the three groups had scrutinized the draft prepared by the joint forum and given their consent with separate acceptance respectively, basing on the five-point resolutions of the joint forum of June 6” it clarified. The forum has appealed to all the underground groups to respect and maintain their commitment. “That our interest is to create a peaceful atmosphere amongst the Nagas; therefore we felt it our (responsibility) to appeal to all groups to stop bloodshed amongst the Naga brethren” the forum explained.
Kuki Inpi states stance Source: The Sangai Express
Imphal, July 27: Informing that the NSCN (IM) leaders have convened a meeting of Kuki chiefs of Nagaland State at Phaipijang village during which it is suspected that the Kuki chiefs may be coerced to accept the terms of NSCN (IM), the Kuki Inpi has stated there is no change in its stance not to accept any kind of agreement until and unless the Government of India settle the issue which resulted in the massacre of 900 Kukis, uprooting 360 villages and displacing 100,000 Kukis by NSCN (IM).

In a memorandum submitted to the Prime Minister of India, it asserted that the Inpi covers the seven States of North East India and as such "not a single area (State) within the Kuki country can represent the whole areas (States) of Kuki Inpi".

Ignoring the pogrom launched by NSCN (IM) against Kukis will cause a possible outbreak of violence, it said while warning that the negotiators will be held fully responsible and the Government of India will be logically taken as the cause of the consequence, it Inpi urged the Union Government to first settle the Kuki problem for the sake of peace and social harmony.
Myanmar, Bangla turn blind eye to Delhi’s pleas The Morung Express
SHILLONG, July 28 (Agencies): Despite assurances, Bangladesh and Myanmar has not lived up to its promises and is shying away from taking action against NE militants sheltering on its soil.
Days after his surrender before the police here, HNLC Chairman, Julius Dorphang said in a press meet yesterday, that he has no information about military crackdown on NE militants based in Bangladesh.
Dorphang was in-charge of HNLC’s foreign affairs and was a linkman between various militant outfits of the region.
Intelligence sources here said that Bangladesh’s interim government had sent “positive signals to New Delhi” to crackdown on NE militants sheltering on its soil. But, despite these assurances, very little has translated on the ground. The sources added that the interim government was taking some action “against Islamic fundamentalists” based in that country. But when it came to taking action against NE militants, Dhaka has “turned a blind eye” towards New Delhi’s repeated plea and concerns, as in earlier occasions. The same is true with Myanmar. The military junta had been sending positive signals to New Delhi that action would be taken against Indian militants based on its soil.
The Assam Rifles (AR) had exuded confidence that ‘something concrete’ would materialise after its meeting together with Home Ministry officials with the military junta of Myanmar earlier this year. Director General of AR, Lt. Gen. P Singh, was part of that delegation, which visited Myanmar together with the Home Ministry officials. He then said in a press meet that things were “moving on the right track” and “something positive and concrete” would develop soon, when asked about military action against NE based militants sheltering in that nation. However, on Wednesday last, Singh said rather dejectedly in a press meet:
“what is preventing Myanmar from taking action against NE militants can’t be commented upon at this juncture,” adding, “even Pakistan says it won’t allow its soil to be misused, but, these are mere statements…in the end we can only hope to be optimistic.”
Helping Burma Becomes Democratic Should Be India's Long Term Policy Indo-Burma News
July 24, 2007: New Delhi, Since the World War II, Myanmar better known the world over as Burma, had never attracted so much international attention as now. Actually, there are reasons both global and local for this development. (Commentary)
The rise of China as a major global economic power and the unlocking of India's potential to grow as yet another global economic power are redefining international relationships in South and Southeast Asia. Myanmar is now viewed as a critical area of interest to China and India. It is of special interest to the U.S. which would like to check the over riding influence of China in this region while cruising on its journey to the status of a contending global power.
While China has developed close political, military and economic relations with Myanmar, India is in the process of following suite. A study of India-Myanmar and Sino-Myanmar relations offer some interesting aspects of how they are adopting the geo-strategic setting and political environment of the region to their advantage.
Geo-strategic reality Myanmar shares common borders with five countries: Bangladesh 193 km, China 2,185 km, India 1,463 km, Laos 235 km, and Thailand 1,800 km. India dominates Myanmar's western borders, just as China dominates its northeastern borders.
Thailand borders the entire eastern part of Myanmar except for narrow strip that borders Laos. And this makes Myanmar a strategic land bridge linking South, and Southeast Asia.
As a littoral of the Indian Ocean, Myanmar's strategic value further increases. Its 1930 km long coastline dominates the eastern arch of the Bay of Bengal, leaning on to the Malacca Strait.
Thus Myanmar provides China the shortest land and sea access to South Asia, just as it provides convenient external land and sea communication options to India's landlocked northeastern states. Myanmar's ocean boundaries are barely 30 km from the Andaman Islands increasing its maritime security potentia. BOTh sides of the regions bordering Myanmar are mostly populated by ethnic communities with their own distinct ethnic, religious and linguistic identities from the rest of the countries. However, the majority Burmese population, who are Buddhists, lives in the fertile and more developed southern Myanmar with easier access from China. Thus the northern tribal regions of Myanmar have suffered neglect and remain under developed.
This has given rise to a sense of alienation among ethnic tribes, many of who had waged relentless wars for their independence. Notable among them are the Nagas, Kachins and Chins bordering India, Arakanese bordering Bangladesh, Lisus, Kachins and Shans bordering China, and the Shans and Karens bordering Thailand. Thus ethnic militancy has always affected Myanmar's democratic governance, destabilizing the country.
Most of Myanmar's mountain ranges and major river systems run north-south. This makes construction of road communication and movement from India's east to Myanmar against the grain of the country difficult. At the same time it facilitates easier movement from the Chinese border in the northeast, and provides for natural flow of traffic. The Chinese have used this favorable terrain configuration to build road from the Chinese border to Mandalay in the heart of Myanmar and onward to the coast. As Myanmar provides the shortest access from mainland China to India's eastern borders these developments have special strategic significance.
India's northeastern states bordering Myanmar are not as well developed as Yunnan province of China bordering Myanmar in the northeast. China has found it useful to link the development of Yunnan region jointly with Myanmar and Laos. Thus the two-way border trade and commerce is qualitatively and quantitatively better with China than with India.
India-Myanmar relationsIndia-Myanmar relations have a long history of substantive political, cultural, religious and social interaction. During the British colonial period Myanmar was administered as a part of British India till 1935.
Till the end of the Second World War, Indian traders, professionals and administrators had followed the British to work in Myanmar. The Indian freedom movement inspired the freedom struggle in Myanmar. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and Aung San, who spearheaded the freedom struggle, had built close personal relationship between them.
After Burma became independent in 1948, the fledgling democracy led by Prime Minister U Nu sought the advice and counsel of Pandit Nehru on more than one occasion. They built a close rapport and the two countries benefited from this relationship.
However, Burma's democratic experience from 1948 to 62 was never a success. Political rivalry, factionalism, and corruption coupled with the ever growing ethnic and communist insurgencies made democratic rule ineffective. However, for the first decade and a half when democracy struggled to articulate itself, the Burma-India relationship drifted apart.
Gen Ne Win, the Burmese army chief, who seized power and ruled the country from 1962 to 88, was essentially a xenophobic leader. In the words of JN Dixit, India's former Foreign Secretary, Ne Win's rule was characterized by "correct but not close relations" between India and Burma.
However, India's reservations about the Myanmar military regime's violent suppression of the peoples' movement for democracy from 1988 onwards and the incarceration of Aung San Suu Kyi soured the relationship between 1989 and 1992. India also provided sanctuary and financial assistance to fleeing pro-democracy activists. In a marked departure from the past, India's Myanmar policy had been undergoing a radical change since 1992. The new policy focused purely on India's strategic and economic considerations based on pragmatic grounds. Myanmar bordered India's sensitive northeastern states. Myanmar's northern borders abutting China also constituted a tri junction of India's eastern border. It forms a strategic bridge between South Asia and South East Asia making it a vital area of influence for India's security. There had been a phenomenal growth in Chinese influence in Myanmar particularly after the western nations slapped a ban on sale of arms to Myanmar in 1989.
This was a matter of serious concern as it brought the threat from Chinese mainland nearer home to the northeast. Moreover, Myanmar's support was considered essential for curbing drug traffic, and Myanmar based insurgency threats to India's northeast.
Since then the successive Indian Government, have embarked upon building a broad based relationship with Myanmar touching upon defence, trade and commerce, energy sector, and developmental assistance and confidence building with the top level.
While Myanmar welcomed India's interest and expressed its readiness to cooperate with India on strategic issues and in increasing economic and technological cooperation in all spheres, the regime cautioned against Indian interference in its internal affairs relating to release of Aung San Suu Kyi and restoration of democracy.
The military junta reacted adversely when India conferred the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding to Aung San Suu Kyi in 1995. Though this clouded the relationship for a while, it made the military regime became suspicious of India ganging up with the West against the regime. As a result India has jettisoned its support for the democratic movement in Myanmar. It has progressively withdrawn the succor provided to the Myanmar leaders who had taken refuge in India.
India's policy considerations After liberalisation of Indian economy from 1992 onwards, India started looking at the lucrative markets of ASEAN region as part of the 'Look East Policy'. Following the admission of Myanmar as a member of the ASEAN in 1996 its importance in furthering India's trade with ASEAN increased.
Development of the seven Northeastern states has remained stagnant resulting in the alienation of sections of society and encouraging the growth of insurgency. Development of land and sea links for through Myanmar could end their isolation and wean them away from insurgency. Some of the insurgent groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) operate from sanctuaries in Myanmar. Better relations and coordination with the regime in Myanmar could put an end to the operation of such insurgencies. Myanmar's abundant reserves of natural gas waiting to be exploited, could help India in meeting its ever increasing demand for energy resources as the economy keeps growing at a fast pace.
Growth of India-Myanmar relations In keeping with these considerations, India has been focusing on giving substance to India-Myanmar relationship with specific actions. There have been a number of high level visits between the leaders of the two countries. Sr Gen Than Shwe, Myanmar's head of state, visited India in October 2004.
President APJ Abdul Kalam visited Yangon in March 2006. Visits of ministers and chiefs of armed forces from both countries have also taken place. There had been regular meetings at the ministerial level to monitor the progress of various projects involving India in Myanmar.
To improve connectivity with Myanmar, India has taken up a number of road and port construction projects. India has constructed the 160-km Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo road in Myanmar from Manipur border. It is also assisting in the proposed trilateral highway project to connect Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand via Bagan in Myanmar.
India's Kaladan multi-modal transit transport facility is aimed at improving linkage between Indian ports on the eastern seaboard and Sittwe port in Myanmar. This would enable transportation by river transport and road to Mizoram providing an alternate route for transport of goods to northeast India. A proposal to build a rail link from Jiribaum in Assam to Hanoi in Vietnam through Myanmar is also on the cards. India is slowly becoming a regular supplier of arms to Myanmar, joining the ranks of China, Russia and Ukraine. Initially, India had supplied low tech arms and armaments, including 105 mm guns, T-55 tanks, light helicopters, transport planes, artillery ammunition and some naval craft.
However, there had been a progressive up gradation of these exports. All the three chiefs of India's armed forces have visited Myanmar for building better rapport. India's latest defence aid package includes counterinsurgency helicopters, avionics upgrades for Myanmar air force's Russian and Chinese-made fighter planes, and naval surveillance aircraft.
India's trade with Myanmar is growing at a fast clip. It is fourth largest trading partner with its investment reaching $35.08 million last year. In 2006-2007, India-Myanmar trade was estimated at $ 650 million falling short of the target of $ one billion. (In 2004-2005, China-Myanmar trade was $1.145 billion as against India's figure of $ 341.40 million in 2004-05.) India is taking steps such as extending airlines, land and sea routes to strengthen trade links with Myanmar. It is also cooperating with Myanmar in areas like agriculture, telecommunications, and oil and gas sectors etc. India's policy of building closer relations with the military regime in Myanmar has drawn flak both at home and abroad. This was considered a betrayal of India's ethos. During a recent visit to Myanmar on January 19, 2007, India's External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee made clear the country's "hands off" policy on the struggle for restoration of democracy going on in Myanmar. He said that India had to deal with governments "as they exist ... We are not interested in exporting our own ideology. We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere. But this is for every country to decide for itself."
Chinese influence China-Myanmar relations have a long history. Modern Myanmar's relations with China can be divided conveniently into four periods: 1949-1961 democratic rule, 1962-1988 Ne Win rule, and 1989-to date: Than Shwe rule.
In the period of democratic rule, the emerging China found a friendly regime in Burma under Prime Minister U Nu. Independent Burma was one of the first countries to recognise the Peoples Republic of China in December 1949. The two countries signed the first trade agreement in 1954 and a boundary treaty in 1960. However, China's preoccupation with its own consolidation and growth restricted the relationship. Yet in1961 armies of both countries launched joint operations to evict Kuomintang troops from parts of Shan state in Myanmar.
After Ne Win seized power in 1962, the relations between the two countries took a nosedive and the cadres of Communist Party of Burma (CPB) sought refuge in China. For the next six years, Sino-Myanmar relations had troubled times with periodic persecution of ethnic Chinese and anti-Chinese riots in Myanmar. Between 1968 and 1973 Chinese gave full support to the CPB insurgents to fight the military junta successfully. The Chinese also provided similar aid to Kachin, Shan rebels and Naga militants during this period. The CPB organised a number of insurgent groups to operate jointly against the military regime. However, Ne Win's China visit in 1975 somewhat eased the relations. It warmed up in 1979 when China signed a $ 63 million aid agreement for various projects in Myanmar.
The year 1988 was a turbulent period both in China with the Tian An Mien square agitation and the 8888 Movement of students in Myanmar. Perhaps this generated some kindred spirit in the regimes in both the countries. China utilized the opportunity offered by the international isolation of Myanmar after the military regime crushed the people's upsurge in 1988. In 1989, China formally advised CPB to retire in keeping with its revised policy to stop assisting insurgents of other countries. This crucial decision helped the military junta to end the Communist insurgency and cripple Kachin and Shan insurgencies to a large extent.
Since then China has stepped its influence through economic, military and development assistance. China has been providing military hardware to Myanmar to overcome international sanctions and help Tatmadaw to grow in strength. Till recently almost 80 per cent of Myanmar's defence equipment was of Chinese origin. China has considerable economic influence in a number of fields, including supply of electricity and trade and commerce.
The grateful military junta has now raised China to the status of 'Elder Brother'. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, had summed up China's Myanmar policy in these words: "China supports Myanmar's efforts in maintaining national stability, promoting reconciliation among ethnic groups and expanding foreign relations."
Chinese illegal migration into in the under populated northern areas of Myanmar had been an unreported process for sometime now. According to one report 30 percent of Mandalay's population was of Chinese immigrants. Unlike ethnic Indian community, which had been languishing as second class citizens under Myanmar citizenship laws, China has managed the absorption of ethnic Chinese as citizens of Myanmar.
China's strategic objective appears to be to gain direct access to Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea through Myanmar bypassing the narrow Strait of Malacca. With this aim in view China had been underwriting the development roads from northern borders to south. China has proved time and again itself as a valuable ally of the internationally whenever efforts were made in the UN Security Council to discuss Myanmar. In fact, China is perhaps the single most important power with influence over the military regime. In the ten year lead time it had, China has established close military cooperation with Myanmar. It also has established four electronic listening posts in Myanmar to monitor Indian and Thai communication traffic.
This implies that as long as the military regime in power China will continue to have an overriding influence in Myanmar regardless of India's efforts to build a win-win relationship. In other words, as long as India and China have a peaceful and constructive relationship, India-Myanmar relations will flourish in the present political dispensation.
Understanding the military regime Traditionally and qualitatively the Tatmadaw differs from the armies of South Asian countries which started as instruments of British colonial power. However, in Burma, the British used the more dependable Indian Army for security and did not create a large Burmese army. On the outbreak of the World War a group of nationalist leaders under Aung San known as the 'Thirty Comrades' raised the Burma Independence Army. The BIA spearheaded Myanmar's freedom struggle first against the British in collaboration with the Japanese invaders and later against the Japanese in support of the Allied armies. The Thirty Comrades had been deciding the political destiny of Burma. The first Prime Minister U Nu, and Gen Ne Win, the Army Chief were all members of this elite group of 30.
The Burmese society's exposure to western values had been limited even during the British colonial period. Thus western concept of democracy did not take root in Burma. So after Myanmar became free in 1948, for next 14 years the multi party democracy in action was disastrous. When the democratic experiment miserably failed, in 1962 the army under Gen Ne Win took upon itself to provide 'stability and security' to the country. Even after the exit of Ne Win in 1988, the military regime has managed to hold on to power.
Twenty six years of Ne Win's rule has resulted in state ownership of all enterprises, with the Tatmadaw (as armed forces are known) having a strangle hold on everyday life of the people. Rudimentary democracy introduced under the tutelage of the Tatmadaw was a single party rule that was a handmaiden of the military masters. Thus the Tatmadaw feels it has a legitimate role in ensuring stability and security in the country, if necessary outside the control of political masters.
This feeling of the armed forces seeking a perpetual role in power is the main road block in evolving a democratic constitution. There is close integration of military commanders in local development council activities. Most of the public sector undertakings are headed by military officers. This has built a vested interest in the armed forces to stay in power in any scheme of governance. The Tatmadaw, is Southeast Asia's second largest conventional force, estimated at over 400,000 troops. It has more than doubled in size since the SPDC took power in 1989. It has around 340 infantry battalions (Tat Yin) including 266 light infantry battalions employed in counter insurgency operations. Myanmar tank fleet comprises of 139 Soviet-designed T 72Ss and around 600 Chinese built main battle tanks of different models. The Tatmadaw is considered an effective force in combating insurgency as evident from its ability to successfully handle nearly 45 insurgent groups during the last three decades. However, it is considered as having little experience in conducting conventional operations.
The Air Force (Tatmadaw Lei) has about 64 fighter/interceptors (F7 and MIG 29) and 64 fighter/ground attack aircraft (J6 and A5) apart from 33 aircraft for counter insurgency operations. The Air Force has very limited transport lift capability. The Navy (Tatmadaw Yay) has one frigate and three corvettes, 26 fast attack craft (FAC) including 10 FAC armed with missiles and 10 submarine chasers. Ending its isolation for the first time ever, Myanmar built missile corvette UMS Anawyahta participated in Milan 2006 exercise off Andamans along with Indian Navy in January 2006. The Tatmadaw will always remain a dominant factor in running the country regardless of the type of rule. This is somewhat similar to the role often assumed by armies in deciding the fate of the nation in countries like Pakistan and Indonesia. So at present any dispensation to restore democracy will have to involve the concurrence if not cooperation of the Tatmadaw.
Conclusion Myanmar has a great deal of strategic significance for both India and China. Over the last two decades the Chinese have built very close economic, political, military and developmental relations with Myanmar.
Myanmar's role in providing China a shorter access route to Indian Ocean and South Asia is going to be crucial in the strategic scene of South Asia. The Chinese have used the geophysical advantage they enjoy to gain access to Myanmar's mineral and natural gas resources.
Following a policy of non-interference in internal affairs of the country, China has become the main supplier of arms to Myanmar. This has enabled the military junta in power to beat the western sanctions and double the army strength. It has also enabled the junta to suppress the struggle for democracy going on under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi since 1990.
India has embarked on a policy of building closer relations with Myanmar to counter the Chinese influence and facilitate the growth of trade and commerce with ASEAN as part of its look east policy. It is financing road and port development projects in Myanmar which would improve connectivity of India's north eastern states and help their development. India has also been selectively arming Myanmar despite the military regime's dismal record in human rights and governance. With a friendly regime in Myanmar, India hopes to evict Indian insurgent groups from sanctuaries in Myanmar.The military regime has welcomed these efforts to broaden its relationship with India and ASEAN countries in the interest of its own strategic security.
India's current Myanmar policy appears to be largely copying the methods adopted by the Chinese. However, India as the largest functional democracy has a larger role to play in encouraging the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. Considering this, India's relationship should aim at building better economic and developmental relations with the military regime while exploring all avenues to help the military regime and the democratic forces evolve a viable solution to build a democratic society. Sacrificing India's fraternal relations with Myanmar's democratic forces by itself is unlikely to increase India's influence as the military regime is using the competing interests of India and China to its own advantage. Apart from the lead it has gained in Myanmar, internationally China has greater economic, political, and military clout than India in helping out the military regime. Given this advantage, India is unlikely to replace China's position as the most influential country in Myanmar under the military regime.
In the absence of Aung San Kyi's leadership, the struggle for democracy in Myanmar has become immobile. Understanding this, the military regime is unlikely to release Aung San Suu Kyi unless it gains a face saving role for the Tatmadaw in any future democratic set up. The military regime has been able to weather international sanctions for nearly 20 years. However, as Myanmar's ties with India and ASEAN countries grow and economic liberalisation touches the younger generation of military officers, we can expect a desire for change among armed forces. Similarly, the student movement holds the potential to take over a leadership role for political rapprochement with the military regime. When these developments come through perhaps there is a scope for evolving a democratic society though different from the western concepts but meeting Myanmar's needs.
India and China are indispensable in enabling this process that could stabilize the society in their strategic neighbourhood. Thus in the interest of India's strategic security, helping the creation of a stable and democratic regime in Myanmar should be India's long term policy rather than mere economic goals.
[The article is a Presentation made at an interaction on "Emerging India-China-Myanmar Relations", jointly organized by the Chennai Centre For China Studies and the Department of International Relations of Stella Maris College, Chennai, at the college on July 19, 2007]


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